Why sellers still expect to get asking price when most metros sell below it

TL;DR: 83% of people planning to sell expected to get asking price or more, per Realtor.com's Spring Seller Survey (fielded Mar 16-23, 2026). Then June closed, and homes sold below ask in 38 of the 50 largest U.S. metros, according to CNBC citing Redfin (Aug 7, 2026). Miami closed 4.66% under list. Nationally about 25% of homes sold above ask, CNBC's rounding of Redfin's June 24.1%. The 38-of-50 figure is the one you bring to the table. Keep the survey in March. Keep 38 of 50 in June.

Your seller, this week: "We'll list a little high and come down if we have to."

They still think asking price is the floor.

Buyers have been treating it as the opening number.

That gap is the conversation. Not a debate about whether the market is "good."

What sellers expected in March

Realtor.com's 2026 Spring Seller Survey was fielded March 16-23, 2026, among U.S. adults considering a sale in the next 12 months.

83% of those planning to sell expected to receive their asking price or more.

The split: 46% expected to get ask. 37% expected to exceed it. 12% expected to come in below.

39% anticipated having to make concessions, up from 30% in the 2025 survey.

That survey is expectation. It is not a June close.

Keep it in March when you say it out loud. If you let it sound current, you are quoting hope as if it were a comp.

What June actually closed

Then June closed.

CNBC, citing Redfin's June 2026 metro sale-to-list data (published Aug 7, 2026): homes sold for less than asking in 38 of the 50 largest U.S. housing markets.

That 38-of-50 figure is the one you bring to the table.

Biggest average discounts in that write-up:

Miami, 4.66% under list.

West Palm Beach, 4.59%.

Houston, 3.53%.

Austin, 3.17%.

Tampa, 3.07%.

San Francisco, New York, and Boston still got slightly more than ask.

Nationally, CNBC said only about 25% of homes sold above their asking price, down from roughly 55% at the pandemic-era peak in 2022.

The fine print is 24.1% on Redfin's June page. CNBC rounded. Use 38 of 50 as the conversation figure. Use 24.1% if you need the precise June national.

Do not mash the survey into the close. 83% was March expectation. 38 of 50 was June.

The lag Daryl Fairweather named

Redfin's Daryl Fairweather put the delay in one line.

"Buyers notice right away when mortgage rates go up because it's more expensive for them to buy a home. It takes a while for sellers to realize, 'Hey, maybe I need to price lower.'"

That is the kitchen-table problem.

Your seller listed, or is about to list, as if asking price is the floor.

The buyer touring this week already priced in the rate. They notice first. The seller notices after the house sits.

Labor Day week is when silence gets blamed on the holiday, not on the number.

If they listed in June or July on a March expectation, they are 4 to 8 weeks in, heading into the holiday, and interpreting quiet as calendar.

It is not the calendar. It is the lag Fairweather named.

What you say at the table

Do not debate whether the market is "good."

Bring your metro's sale-to-list into the listing appointment so your seller is not hearing "below ask" for the first time from a buyer's agent after Labor Day.

When your seller says, "We'll list a little high and come down if we have to. That's how you leave room."

You say: In June, homes sold below ask in 38 of the 50 biggest metros. Miami closed about 4.7% under list. Nationally only about 1 in 4 homes went over ask. If we list high, we are not leaving room. We are volunteering to be the house that sits through the holiday while the priced-right ones get the showings.

If they want the survey split, give it to them labeled.

46% thought they would get ask. 37% thought they would get more. 12% thought they would come in below. That was March. Then June closed 38 of 50 below ask.

If they want concessions: 39% already anticipated having to make them, up from 30% in 2025. Expecting a concession is not the same as pricing as if you will not need one.

Price for the close you can defend.

Your seller's number is a March expectation. June's number is 38 of 50 metros below ask.

Frequently asked questions

Why do sellers still expect to get asking price when most metros sell below it?

Sellers still expect to get asking price because 83% of people planning to sell in Realtor.com's Spring Seller Survey (Mar 16-23, 2026) thought they would get ask or more, and that expectation lags the close. CNBC, citing Redfin's June 2026 data (Aug 7, 2026), found homes sold below ask in 38 of the 50 largest metros. Redfin's Daryl Fairweather said buyers notice rate increases right away, and it takes a while for sellers to realize they may need to price lower.

How many of the 50 biggest metros sold below asking price in June 2026?

Homes sold below asking price in 38 of the 50 largest U.S. metros in June 2026, according to CNBC citing Redfin (Aug 7, 2026). Use 38 of 50 as the conversation figure. Miami closed 4.66% under list, with West Palm Beach at 4.59%, Houston 3.53%, Austin 3.17%, and Tampa 3.07%. San Francisco, New York, and Boston still sold for slightly more than ask.

What did the Realtor.com 2026 Spring Seller Survey actually measure?

The Realtor.com 2026 Spring Seller Survey measured expectation, not current conditions. Fielded March 16-23, 2026 among U.S. adults considering a sale in the next 12 months, it found 83% expected asking price or more (46% ask, 37% above, 12% below), and 39% anticipated concessions, up from 30% in 2025. Keep those numbers in March. Pair them with June's 38 of 50 metros below ask.

What share of homes sold above asking price nationally in June 2026?

About 25% of homes sold above asking price nationally in June 2026, which is CNBC's rounding of Redfin's June figure of 24.1%, down from roughly 55% at the 2022 pandemic-era peak (CNBC, Aug 7, 2026). If you need the precise June national, use 24.1%. If you need the conversation figure, use 38 of 50 metros below ask.

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Source: Homes are selling below asking in 38 of the 50 biggest US cities, CNBC (Aug 7, 2026). Supporting: Realtor.com 2026 Spring Seller Survey (Mar 16-23, 2026).